AP Film Critics Predict the Winners of the 2026 Oscars
As Hollywood prepares for the 98th Academy Awards on March 15, the race for the biggest honors is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in recent years. Associated Press film writers Lindsey Bahr and Jake Coyle have released their predictions for the top categories, highlighting a few clear favorites as well as some possible surprises.
Best Picture: “One Battle After Another” Leads the Pack
According to the AP critics, “One Battle After Another” is the film most likely to win Best Picture. The movie has dominated the awards season, taking top honors from major industry groups including the Producers Guild, Directors Guild, BAFTAs, and the Golden Globes. That strong momentum has positioned it as the frontrunner heading into Oscar night.
However, the race is not entirely settled. The film “Sinners” has built late momentum after winning the Actors Guild’s top ensemble award and receiving a large number of nominations, making it the biggest potential challenger for Best Picture.
Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson Favored
For Best Director, AP writers predict that Paul Thomas Anderson will take home the award for One Battle After Another. Anderson has already won several major directing honors during the awards season, giving him a commanding lead in this category.
Best Actor: Michael B. Jordan Gains Momentum
The Best Actor category has been one of the most closely watched races of the year. AP’s critics believe Michael B. Jordan will win for his performance in Sinners.
Jordan’s victory at the Actors Guild Awards significantly boosted his chances and may have tipped the scales in his favor. If he wins, it would mark his first Academy Award, making it a career milestone.
Best Actress: Jessie Buckley the Clear Favorite
In the Best Actress category, Jessie Buckley is widely expected to win for her role in Hamnet. Buckley has collected multiple major awards throughout the season, making her the most consistent winner among nominees.
Supporting Acting Categories
The supporting acting races also feature strong contenders:
Best Supporting Actor: AP writers predict Sean Penn will win for One Battle After Another.
Best Supporting Actress: Teyana Taylor is expected to take the award for her standout performance in One Battle After Another, although the category remains competitive.
Other Major Predictions
Beyond the acting and directing categories, AP critics highlighted several other likely winners:
Best Animated Feature: KPop Demon Hunters is favored due to its cultural impact and popularity.
Best Documentary Feature: The Perfect Neighbor is predicted to win.
Best International Feature: The race appears close, but The Secret Agent (Brazil) and Sentimental Value (Norway) are leading contenders.
An Unpredictable Oscars Night
Despite several apparent favorites, critics say the 2026 Oscars could still produce surprises. Late-season awards and shifting industry sentiment have created uncertainty in several categories, especially Best Picture and Supporting Actress.
With strong contenders and tight races across multiple categories, the upcoming ceremony promises a dramatic and memorable night for film fans.